Catastrophic inflation

Preventing catastrophic filter divergence using adaptive additive inflation

Ensemble based filtering or data assimilation methods have proved to be indispensable tools in atmosphere and ocean science as they allow computationally cheap, low dimensional ensemble state approximation for extremely high dimensional turbulent dynamical systems. For sparse, accurate and infrequent observations, which are typical in data assimilation of geophysical systems, ensemble filtering...

Catastrophic Risks

Catastrophic risks are rare events with major consequences, e.g. catastrophic climate change or extinction of a species. The article summarizes decision theory involving catastrophic risks within Von Neumann’s axiomatic theory of choice under uncertainty, and within new extensions of the theory that are speci…cally designed for rare events of major consequences. The classic expected utility the...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

Inflation and Eternal Inflation

The basic workings of inflationary models are summarized, along with the arguments that strongly suggest that our universe is the product of inflation. The mechanisms that lead to eternal inflation in both new and chaotic models are described. Although the infinity of pocket universes produced by eternal inflation are unobservable, it is argued that eternal inflation has real consequences in te...

Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting

There is widespread agreement that price stability (in practice, low and stable inflation) should be an objective of monetary policy. This agreement is reflected both in the mandates set for monetary policy by governments and in the practice of central banks. Several other important questions about the objectives for monetary policy are less settled: Should there be other objectives? If there a...